By Atoyebi Nike
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has sounded the alarm over the declining performance of the oil and gas sector, cautioning that the trend could derail the successful execution of the 2025 national budget.
In its latest 2025 Q1 GDP Alert, the policy think tank revealed that Nigeria’s average crude oil production fell short of the budget benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day, resulting in substantial revenue losses.
“This persistent slowdown in oil output threatens key government spending plans,” the report stated, citing challenges such as ageing infrastructure, pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and the kidnapping of expatriates.
While noting a rebound in oil refining thanks largely to the Dangote Refinery, the NESG urged support for private refineries and the rehabilitation of state-owned plants. It highlighted that the Dangote facility had cut petrol import costs by 53% year-on-year in Q1 2025.
The group also welcomed improved data capture from the informal sector following the GDP rebasing, which pushed the livestock subsector’s share of agricultural GDP from 4.8% to 13.4%. However, it warned of rising food inflation unless farmer-herder conflicts are urgently addressed.
NESG further recommended implementing new tax reforms in 2026 to ease VAT burdens for small businesses, encourage formalization, and reduce business closures nationwide.
The National Bureau of Statistics put Nigeria’s GDP at ₦372.8 trillion in 2024 following the rebasing exercise, which updated the reference year to 2019.
