By Atoyebi Nike
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has kept its global oil demand and supply outlook for 2025 unchanged, according to its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday.
OPEC highlighted jet fuel as the main contributor to demand growth next year, supported by a rebound in international air travel and steady mobility in emerging markets. Gasoline is projected to take the lead in 2026.
The group expects global oil demand to increase by 1.29 million barrels per day to 105.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and by another 1.38 million barrels per day to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026, according to Argus.
While the report made slight downward adjustments to demand growth projections for China and India, stronger outlooks for other Asian countries, Africa and Latin America balanced the figures, keeping non-OECD demand growth steady at about 1.2 million barrels per day.
Jet and kerosene demand is forecast to grow by 380,000 barrels per day in 2025, followed by diesel at 300,000 barrels per day and gasoline at 280,000 barrels per day. LPG and naphtha are expected to add a combined 510,000 barrels per day, driven by petrochemical activity, while heavy distillates are projected to decline by 120,000 barrels per day.
In 2026, gasoline is expected to lead demand growth at 430,000 barrels per day, followed by jet fuel at 360,000 barrels per day. Diesel growth is seen slowing to 190,000 barrels per day, while LPG and naphtha combined are expected to increase by 400,000 barrels per day.
On supply, OPEC left its non-OPEC+ output growth forecasts unchanged at 810,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 630,000 barrels per day in 2026, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina.
OPEC+ crude production, including Mexico, averaged 43.05 million barrels per day in September, rising by 630,000 barrels per day from the previous month. The group maintained its estimate for the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 43.1 million barrels per day in 2026.
