By Engr Mahmud Mohammed-Nurudeen
The European Union’s top scientific advisors are warning that the EU should not rely on international carbon credits to meet its climate goals. They stress that the focus should be on cutting emissions within Europe. According to scientists and climate activists, using carbon credits from other countries to offset emissions would be a wrong and risky strategy for many reasons.
Under a UN-supported agreement made at last year’s COP29 climate summit, carbon credits allow one country to pay for projects that cut emissions in another country, and then count those emission cuts as part of its own climate progress.
Supporters say this method is cheaper than making changes at home and can also help poorer countries get money for their climate efforts.
But critics including scientists on the EU advisory board warn that relying on carbon credits could take away money from important climate projects within the country and could also weaken the overall strength and honesty of global climate efforts.
The ESABCC – an independent body legally responsible for giving advice on climate policy has never spoken out this strongly in the middle of a political debate before.
In a 60-page report titled “Scientific Advice for Amending the European Climate Law – Setting Climate Goals to Strengthen EU Strategic Priorities”, which was seen by JoyNews journalist Mahmud Mohammed-Nurudeen, the group warned against using international carbon credits to meet climate targets.
The report said that using such credits, even partly, could harm Europe’s economy by taking money away from important local investments in infrastructure, skills, and innovation. Although these credits may seem cheaper from a global point of view, they carry serious risks. These include weakening carbon markets, failing to truly reduce emissions (known as “leakage”), and making it hard to track and prove actual carbon savings.
“Using international carbon credits to meet this target, even partially, could undermine domestic value creation by diverting resources from the necessary transformation of the EU’s economy, including investments in infrastructure, skills and innovation. International credits might appear cost-effective from a global perspective, but they entail significant risks to carbon markets and environmental integrity, including concerns about additionality, emissions being displaced to other regions (leakage) as well as robust monitoring, reporting and verification.”
For these reasons, the Advisory Board does not support the idea of using international carbon credits instead of cutting emissions within the EU to meet the 2040 climate goal.
The experts say the EU must stay focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90–95% below 1990 levels by 2040, despite recent signs that leaders may aim for a less ambitious target.
The scientists said the EU should still help fight climate change beyond its own borders. However, they explained that fair support means combining strong action at home with real and trustworthy help for other countries.
“This can include mechanisms to support climate action abroad without substituting for domestic efforts or relying on the acquisition of carbon credits, in line with the EU’s responsibilities under the Paris Agreement,” it stated.
The report also suggests that, in the future, high-quality international carbon removal projects could help the EU go beyond climate neutrality and reach net-negative emissions — but only after it fully meets its climate goals at home.
EU commitment towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and net-negative emissions
The European Union (EU) is working to fight climate change by aiming to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and even lower emissions after that. The goal is part of the European Climate Law. To get there, the law sets a clear target to reduce emissions by 55% by 2030. The EU has created many new laws to help reach this goal. According to the bloc, the target seems possible because its emissions dropped by 9% in 2023, the biggest drop ever seen in Europe.
The European Climate Law also says the EU must set another target for 2040 to stay on track for 2050. In 2023, the Advisory Board suggested reducing emissions by 90–95% compared to 1990 levels by 2040, based on models that match the EU’s goal and the Paris Agreement. In 2024, the European Commission recommended a 90% reduction target for 2040, agreeing with the Advisory Board and its own studies. A formal proposal to include the 2040 target in the law is underway this year 2025 to help plan the EU’s next steps under the Paris Agreement.
“…achieving a 2040 emission reduction of 90–95 % domestically remains both feasible and would keep the EU on a credible path to climate neutrality by 2050. Aiming for a lower target would not only jeopardise the EU’s progress towards this goal, but also undermine its sustainability, long-term competitiveness and energy security in a time of geopolitical uncertainty,” according to the report.
To make sure both temporary and permanent carbon removals help climate goals without slowing down efforts to cut emissions, the EU is advised to set three separate targets for 2040: for total emission cuts, permanent carbon removals, and temporary carbon removals.
The report said domestic carbon removals can help the EU meet its 2040 goal by balancing out emissions from activities that cannot yet be reduced or avoided.
Public institutions also need to manage and invest in these removals and support business models that can grow quickly and sustainably to balance leftover emissions and achieve net-negative emissions after 2050.
According to the report, having separate targets for total emissions, permanent removals, and temporary removals will stop delays in cutting emissions or removing carbon. “That is, delays in either emission reduction or removal efforts – and avoid the diversion of investments from emission reductions. The targets should also reflect the distinct features of permanent and temporary removals.”
The report added that these targets should be included in the European Climate Law or other laws later and they should be part of a wider EU plan for carbon removal that ensures high-quality removals, supports restoring natural land carbon sinks, encourages new technologies, and helps build necessary infrastructure.
“The framework should also include effective pricing tools, such as the gradual integration of permanent removals into the EU ETS and the introduction of extended emitter responsibility.”
