By Aminu Adamu
Northern Nigeria’s economic stagnation is not merely a legacy of colonial disruption or security challenges, it is rooted in the choices of its elite. Although Northern states account for 48% of the land and nearly half of Nigeria’s population, they contribute just 23% of national GDP, while states in the South such as Lagos, Rivers, and Delta collectively account for 36% of Nigeria’s economic out. The discrepancy extends to human welfare: approximately 65% of Nigeria’s multidimensionally poor, including nearly 86 million people, live in the North, while most Southern states record poverty rates below 30%.
Yet the Northern bourgeoisie, those with fortune, political access, and status have largely abstained from investing in industrial infrastructure or manufacturing. Instead, they profit through political appointments, land speculation, oil contracts, and public-sector patronage. This investigative report explores why the Northern elite have failed to industrialize their region, how that contrasts with industrial investment by elites in the West and South, and what structural and cultural obstacles reinforce their preferences, ultimately entrenching inequality and dependence.
Elites in the North wield considerable influence but their investments seldom translate into factories, agro-processing plants, or export goods. Instead, their return on capital often comes from government allocation, oil sector contracts, or real estate speculation.
A striking indicator of this pattern is the scarcity of foreign direct investment (FDI) into Northern states. In the first nine months of 2024, 18 out of 19 states in Northern Nigeria attracted zero FDI; only Kaduna received a meager $1.95 million, out of a national inflow of $7.1 billion. In broader terms, data compiled by various observers shows that between June 2023 and June 2024, the South‑West received $31.87 billion in FDI, overshadowing a combined $8.4 billion for all Northern zones. Lagos alone accounted for 79% of the country’s FDI.
Meanwhile, the Northern Elders Forum (NEF) has repeatedly warned that federal capital allocations and infrastructure projects overwhelmingly favor Southern states, often excluding critical road, rail, and energy investments that could catalyze industrialisation in the North. According to Professor Abubakar Jika Jiddere (NEF spokesperson), this is not accidental policy error, but a systemic denial that undermines regional cohesion and sustains dependency.
For the Northern bourgeoisie, participation in rent-seeking political networks is more lucrative and far less risky than launching manufacturing enterprises. This preference preserves a cycle where the North remains a market of consumption and subsidies, rather than a hub of production and value-added goods.
In stark contrast to the North, the South and West of Nigeria have witnessed substantial industrial growth-driven in large part by their local elites. These regions boast thriving manufacturing sectors, export-oriented industries, and robust internal revenue systems. This industrial vision is not accidental; it is the product of intentional investment by elite actors, often in partnership with forward-thinking governance.
Take Ogun State, for instance, now considered the second most industrialized state in Nigeria after Lagos. It hosts major multinationals such as Nestlé, Procter & Gamble, Lafarge Cement, and Dangote Cement. The Agbara Industrial Estate in Ogun is one of West Africa’s largest, drawing consistent investment and powering exports. The state’s proximity to Lagos matters but Ogun’s leaders and business elites also intentionally designed pro-industry policies, offered tax incentives, built industrial parks, and promoted ease-of-doing-business frameworks.
In the South-East, Anambra State has emerged as a symbol of indigenous industrial potential. It is home to Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing, Nigeria’s first indigenous car maker, established by billionaire entrepreneur Innocent Ifediaso Chukwuma. Beyond vehicles, the state’s elite have backed enterprises in agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and local manufacturing, transforming Nnewi into a model industrial cluster. This is a region where commercial dynasties, from the Chikason Group to Cutix Cables grew from small shops into large-scale manufacturers with nationwide impact.
Similarly, Lagos, the economic capital of Nigeria, is not just blessed by location. It has benefited from a historical tradition of elite entrepreneurship and a state policy ecosystem designed to encourage business. Lagos alone accounted for 79% of Nigeria’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) between 2023 and 2024, attracting tens of billions of dollars.
These regions also excel in Internally Generated Revenue (IGR). Between 2016 and 2018, the South-West alone contributed 41.7% of Nigeria’s total IGR, while the South-South added 23.7% and South-East 8.1%. The entire North-West and North-East together contributed just 11.5%. Such revenue does not arise solely from oil or federal allocations, it’s generated from commerce, production, and private enterprise.
The elite in these regions, while not perfect, have played catalytic roles. They’ve built banks, technology firms, refineries, farms, real estate empires, and export businesses. This has created jobs, grown local economies, and fostered regional resilience. The Northern bourgeoisie, by contrast, have largely stayed away from this level of engagement.
It would be simplistic, however, to attribute the North’s industrial stagnation solely to elite negligence. Structural and systemic factors have made industrial investment in the North more complex and less attractive. These include infrastructure deficits, insecurity, limited human capital, and unfavorable policies.
- Infrastructural Deficit
Northern Nigeria suffers from chronically poor infrastructure. It lacks proximity to ports—a major advantage for Southern states, leading to higher transport costs for goods meant for export or import. Poor road networks, limited power supply, and underdeveloped railways further compound the challenge. Despite recent rehabilitation of some rail lines (like the Abuja–Kaduna railway), rail cargo capacity remains below demand, and many northern highways remain deathtraps.
A 2024 report from infrastructure observers showed that only 23% of rural roads in the North are paved, compared to 57% in the South-West. Meanwhile, grid electricity supply is inconsistent, with many Northern SMEs relying on generators at double the operating cost of their Southern competitors.
The cost of these deficits is that even Northern entrepreneurs who wish to industrialize face overwhelming logistics and production expenses. For the elite, the incentive to invest in manufacturing is even weaker when patronage networks offer quicker, risk-free returns.
- Insecurity and Instability
Insecurity is perhaps the greatest barrier to investment in the North. Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East, farmer-herder clashes in the North-Central, and banditry in the North-West have destabilized communities and deterred investment. As of 2023, over 2,000 schools had been shut down due to insecurity across Northern Nigeria, and thousands of teachers had fled rural areas.
Research from Benue State showed that a 1% increase in insecurity correlates with a 0.2% drop in crop output, with ripple effects on agro-processing industries and food inflation. Foreign investors and local entrepreneurs alike avoid states with high kidnapping rates or communal tensions.
It’s no surprise, then, that most FDI goes to safer Southern zones, even when land or labor may be cheaper in the North.
- Human Capital Deficit
Perhaps the most persistent constraint is low human capital development. The North suffers from lower literacy rates, higher school dropout rates, and greater gender disparity in education.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, literacy rates in states like Lagos and Imo are over 80%, while Bauchi, Zamfara, and Sokoto report less than 30%. Female secondary school attendance in the North is below 45%, compared to over 90% in the South-East. These figures directly affect the availability of skilled labor for factories, research centers, and tech hubs.
The World Bank also warns that youth unemployment in the North is over 56%, but paradoxically, industrial firms report difficulty hiring qualified technicians, engineers, or IT professionals within the region.
Without an educated workforce, and in the absence of meaningful state-led vocational programs, the North cannot build or sustain industrial ecosystems. The elite, then, rationalize their disengagement as “market impracticality.”
- Policy & Institutional Weakness
Few Northern states have industrial policies with teeth. Kaduna is a notable exception—with the establishment of the Kaduna Investment Promotion Agency (KADIPA), offering land, permits, and support to investors. However, most states lack such platforms. There is little long-term planning, few incentives for private investment, and rampant policy inconsistency.
As a result, elites who might consider launching a tomato processing plant in Kano or a textile revival hub in Katsina face administrative bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles that are absent in Lagos or Ogun.
Among Northern states, Kaduna stands out as a rare example of industrial ambition. While other states languished with zero investment inflows, Kaduna attracted $1.95 million in foreign direct investment in early 2024, the only state in the region to do so during that period.
This relative success was not spontaneous. It resulted from intentional leadership, particularly during the tenure of former Governor Nasir El-Rufai, and the formation of the Kaduna Investment Promotion Agency (KADIPA). KADIPA streamlined investment protocols, provided industrial zones with security guarantees, facilitated land access, and organized investor roadshows both locally and abroad.
A highlight of this policy shift was the Olam poultry and feed mill, a $150 million project, one of the largest of its kind in sub-Saharan Africa. The project created over 1,500 direct and indirect jobs, served a nationwide supply chain, and proved that industrial scale investment is possible in the North, given the right policy and elite commitment.
Other initiatives include the Green Economic Zone, aimed at attracting agro-processing and renewable energy investors. Kaduna also improved ease of doing business through digitized processes for land titles, permits, and taxation.
Contrast this with states like Taraba, Kebbi, Gombe, Jigawa, and Zamfara, which have consistently recorded zero FDI over the last five years. Despite receiving billions in federal allocations, these states have made no significant infrastructural upgrades, built no industrial zones, nor created enabling policies to attract investors. Instead, their elites continue to funnel resources into patronage networks, civil service expansion, and unproductive ventures like luxury hotels or white elephant projects.
The difference is clear: where the elite commit to vision, reform, and private sector partnership, results follow. Kaduna’s story proves that the Northern bourgeoisie are not powerless, but often unwilling to industrialize.
In the absence of large-scale investment from the Northern elite, a growing number of youth entrepreneurs and small businesses are trying to fill the industrial vacuum. However, they do so in extremely hostile environments plagued by insecurity, lack of capital, power shortages, and limited mentorship.
Studies from states like Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau show that small and medium enterprises (SMEs) account for over 60% of job creation in their urban centers, yet receive less than 5% of total state credit guarantees or funding. Many of these businesses operate informally, without tax numbers, access to government grants, or the ability to scale beyond their communities.
In cities like Makurdi, for instance, entrepreneurs in rice milling, cassava processing, and tailoring have emerged—often women-led and community-funded. Despite their resilience, they struggle to meet production demands due to erratic electricity, unsafe transportation, and lack of industrial equipment.
Government programs aimed at youth employment such as the N-Power scheme or state-level skill acquisition programs—have often failed to reach vulnerable populations. A 2023 study found that over 70% of youth in Borno and Yobe had never heard of available government entrepreneurship programs, while less than 3% had ever benefited from one.
There is also a massive gender gap in industrial participation. While women are often more active in micro-enterprises (such as food processing or textile trade), they receive less than 20% of SME capital disbursed through financial institutions, mostly due to lack of collateral and formal banking history.
In the tech sector, hubs like Colab in Kaduna and Startup Kano are promising initiatives but they operate in silos, often without elite sponsorship or state integration. These grassroots movements reflect an emerging culture of industrial self-help one that has so far grown despite, not because of, Northern elite investment.
What’s lacking is a system where youth enterprise intersects with policy and elite capital. In Lagos or Aba, a tailor can expand from one shop to a fashion label through access to micro-credit, logistics networks, and mentorship. In Sokoto or Bauchi, that same tailor likely remains confined to their local market, without the ecosystem needed to scale.
While the data clearly shows a pattern of elite inaction toward industrialization in Northern Nigeria, it is essential to understand why this inaction persists. The answer lies in a complex intersection of politics, cultural inertia, and economic self-preservation.
- Patronage Is More Profitable Than Production
In Northern Nigeria, the elite class derives much of its influence from access to political power through federal appointments, control of local governments, and deep integration into the civil service and traditional authority structures. This structure creates a rentier economy, where income is largely derived from state patronage rather than productive ventures.
Unlike the industrialist elite of the South who often must compete in open markets, Northern elites typically invest in guaranteed returns: construction contracts, import licenses, government procurements, and political endorsements. These investments are not only less risky, but they also require less innovation or infrastructure.
Moreover, the absence of performance accountability allows Northern elites to accumulate wealth without investing in industries that would foster economic competition or independent middle-class power bases. As one development economist noted, “Industrialization democratizes wealth and power; patronage centralizes it.”
- Cultural Conservatism and Traditional Hegemony
Cultural attitudes in parts of Northern Nigeria often discourage risk-taking outside traditional channels. Business success, especially in manufacturing and finance, is often viewed as less honorable than landholding or political influence. The prestige associated with traditional titles, public office, or being a benefactor in religious circles often overshadows the appeal of entrepreneurship.
Furthermore, certain interpretations of religious and cultural values discourage practices critical to industrial capitalism: female labor participation, loans with interest, vocational labor, or social mobility across class lines. As a result, many elite families discourage their youth, especially women from pursuing careers in sectors such as logistics, tech, or factory management.
This cultural ecosystem reinforces a static elite class, one that often views industrialization not as a path forward but as a disruption to the traditional order.
- Fear of Empowered Youth Movements
There is also a political calculation at play. Industrialization empowers people. When jobs are created, middle-class values form. Educated youth with financial independence are more likely to demand accountability, resist manipulation during elections, and question the status quo.
By avoiding industrialization, the elite maintain a dependent population, one that relies on handouts, religious charity, and seasonal political largesse. In essence, poverty becomes a tool of control.
It is not that the Northern bourgeoisie lack the capacity to build industries. It is that many of them see industrial transformation as a threat to their political and social dominance.
The implications of continued elite failure to industrialize Northern Nigeria are profound economically, socially, and politically.
- A Deepening North-South Divide
Without industrialization, the North will continue to fall behind economically. Southern states, already outpacing the North in infrastructure, education, IGR, and investment, will accelerate even further. This disparity will harden existing divisions and threaten national cohesion.
- Persistent Poverty and Insecurity
The link between poverty and insecurity is well established. Without jobs and enterprise, young people are more susceptible to recruitment by insurgent groups, bandits, or criminal networks. Industrialization is not just an economic goal; it is a security imperative.
- Brain Drain and Migration
Without opportunities, the North will continue to lose its best minds. Talented young people from Kano, Yobe, and Adamawa are relocating to Lagos, Accra, or Dubai in search of opportunities. This internal brain drain weakens the region’s ability to regenerate itself.
Recommendations: A New Vision for the North
- Policy Shifts
- Create Industrial Corridors with tax incentives, land banks, and energy access in each geo-political zone.
- Establish Northern Investment Authorities similar to KADIPA, with mandates to attract both diaspora and domestic investment.
- Mandate public-private partnerships in agro-processing, solid mineral beneficiation, and light manufacturing.
- Cultural Reorientation
- Launch campaigns to reframe entrepreneurship as honorable and faith-aligned.
- Encourage religious and traditional leaders to champion girl-child education and youth vocational training.
- Elite Responsibility
- Northern billionaires and political heavyweights must invest in homegrown industry, just as their Southern counterparts have done. Instead of acquiring more political offices or importing luxury goods, they should build rice mills, cassava factories, pharmaceuticals, or solar panel assembly plants.
- Education and Workforce Development
- Invest massively in technical and vocational education.
- Establish state-supported innovation hubs connected to universities, focusing on agro-tech, textiles, and climate adaptation.
Northern Nigeria stands at a critical juncture. For decades, its elites have presided over a system built on dependency, patronage, and cultural inertia. But that system is collapsing under the weight of poverty, insecurity, and global irrelevance.
Industrialization is not optional—it is a strategic necessity. It is the only path to jobs, to dignity, to national integration. And it will not come from foreign donors, federal allocations, or seasonal philanthropy. It must come from within—from a new generation of elite leaders ready to exchange comfort for contribution.
Until the Northern bourgeoisie commit to industrial transformation, they will continue to preside over a region rich in people but poor in purpose—a land of potential perpetually deferred.
The time to choose is now.
