By Atoyebi Nike
A new global climate update released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecast a high likelihood of continued record-breaking heat over the next five years, with severe implications for people, ecosystems, and economies.
According to the report, there is an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded. Additionally, the odds that one of these years will see global temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels now stand at 86%.
The five-year average temperature for the period is also likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, with a 70% chance of that occurring—up significantly from last year’s prediction of 47% for the 2024–2028 period.
“Recent observations confirm that we are not slowing down the pace of global warming,” said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. “The consequences will be far-reaching, from weather extremes to environmental degradation and economic disruption.”
The findings highlight that while short-term spikes above 1.5°C are becoming more common, long-term average warming over multiple decades still remains just below that critical level. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target refers to this longer-term trend, typically assessed over 20-year periods.
Arctic Warming and Regional Extremes
Among the report’s standout concerns is the continued rapid warming of the Arctic. Average winter temperatures in the region are expected to exceed the recent baseline (1991–2020) by 2.4°C, a rate more than three times faster than the global average.
Sea ice concentrations are also projected to shrink further across parts of the Arctic, including the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas.
In terms of rainfall, projections suggest wetter-than-average conditions in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia from May to September between 2025 and 2029. Conversely, the Amazon basin is expected to face drier conditions during this same timeframe. South Asia is also likely to continue experiencing above-normal seasonal rainfall, although not uniformly across every year.
Heat Risks and COP30 Outlook
The WMO’s warnings come ahead of this year’s pivotal COP30 climate summit, where countries will review and strengthen their climate pledges. Scientists have consistently underscored that breaching the 1.5°C limit, even temporarily, increases the likelihood of extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, food insecurity, and irreversible damage to natural systems.
The WMO estimates that the current long-term warming level (2015–2034) is approaching 1.44°C, with the possibility of it being as high as 1.54°C, according to different scientific models and methods.
“Every Fraction Matters”
“Every tenth of a degree of warming adds to the severity of climate disruptions,” said Barrett. “Keeping track of these changes through accurate forecasts and observations is vital for governments and communities to adapt effectively.”
The report, produced in collaboration with the UK Met Office and other global climate centres, offers critical scientific guidance for decision-makers navigating a warming world.
WMO
