By Atoyebi Nike
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and the lowest output in seven months. This was revealed in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The figure, sourced through direct communication with Nigerian authorities, represents a decline from 1.434 million bpd recorded in August and remains below the country’s OPEC allocation of about 1.5 million bpd for the month. OPEC typically gathers production data through direct submissions and secondary sources, including energy intelligence platforms.
The drop follows earlier signs of recovery in June and July when output inched closer to the group’s quota. However, renewed shortfalls have been linked to persistent crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical issues at key terminals.
A separate report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed that total crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.581 million bpd in September, comprising 1.39 million bpd of crude oil and 191,373 bpd of condensates. The agency attributed the decline partly to a three-day strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which led to shutdowns of production and export facilities.
In a letter dated September 29, 2025, NNPC Ltd’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, informed regulators that the strike caused significant production deferments and projected revenue losses from missed crude liftings and reduced gas sales.
Analysts warn that the decline could weaken Nigeria’s revenue outlook, as crude oil accounts for more than 80 per cent of foreign exchange earnings and remains central to the 2025 budget projections. NNPC has pledged to raise production to at least 1.8 million bpd by year-end through increased security in the Niger Delta and new upstream investments.
