By Atoyebi Nike
The Nigerian naira ended last week slightly weaker, dipping by 0.14 percent to close at ₦1,532.34 against the US dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).
This came after the local currency rallied to a four-month high on Monday, opening the week at ₦1,518.88/$. However, it quickly lost ground, trading at ₦1,530.25/$, slipping further to ₦1,533.11/$ midweek before stabilizing at ₦1,532.34/$ by Friday.
Throughout the week, the naira’s highest recorded rate at the official market was ₦1,538/$, while its lowest was ₦1,515/$. On the parallel market, trading hovered between ₦1,535/$ and ₦1,544/$.
Analysts attribute the fluctuations to persistent supply-demand imbalances despite interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and improved forex liquidity. According to Cowry Assets Management Limited’s weekly report, the naira saw mixed movements, appreciating slightly by 0.06 percent week-on-week in the parallel market to close at ₦1,544/$, while posting a loss at the official window.
“The divergent movements reflect ongoing supply-demand imbalances and the evolving FX liquidity landscape,” the report stated. It added that stronger oil earnings and capital inflows could bolster dollar reserves and provide near-term stability for the currency.
Supporting this outlook, fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that Nigeria’s daily crude oil output (excluding condensates) rose by 3.6 percent to 1.51 million barrels in June 2025 marking the first time in five months the country met its OPEC quota.
AIICO Capital Limited noted that the CBN intervened at both ends of the week with dollar sales, helping to sustain relative calm in the FX market. “The naira closed at ₦1,532.34/$, down 13.6 basis points week-on-week. Reserves rose by $422 million to $37.85 billion from $37.43 billion the week before,” the firm noted in its market brief.
Looking ahead, analysts expect the naira to remain within current trading bands as markets await cues from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which begins deliberations today. While some analysts support a rate cut amid stabilizing inflation and improved forex performance, others caution against loosening too soon, citing global uncertainties and domestic food supply risks.
“For now, traders are positioning around the edges, but the real signal will come from the tone of the communique,” stated analysts at Comercio Partners.
