By Atoyebi Nike
Nigeria’s external reserves are projected to rise to $51.04 billion in 2026, supported by stronger oil revenues, foreign exchange (FX) market reforms and improved external inflows, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The projection is contained in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria and represents a significant increase from an estimated $45.01 billion in 2025, pointing to stronger external buffers and easing pressure in the FX market.
The apex bank attributed the expected reserve growth to higher oil earnings, increased sovereign bond issuance, sustained diaspora remittances, FX market reforms and expanded domestic refining capacity.
“The external reserves are projected at $51.04 billion in 2026, compared with $45.01 billion in 2025,” the CBN said.
“The improvement reflects reduced pressure in the FX market, driven by anticipated growth in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance and diaspora remittance inflows.”
The bank said ongoing FX reforms would improve market efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and Bureau De Change (BDC) rates, and help sustain exchange rate stability.
The CBN also linked the positive outlook to expanded domestic refining capacity, citing the Dangote Refinery’s planned increase to 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a longer-term target of 1.4 million barrels per day.
According to the apex bank, higher local refining would reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, lower demand for foreign exchange and ease pressure on external reserves.
Nigeria has faced persistent FX shortages in recent years due to high import bills, fuel subsidies and weak external inflows, prompting reforms aimed at rate unification, improved price discovery and restoring investor confidence.
