By Atoyebi Nike
MTN Nigeria lost N440 billion in 2024, hit hard by currency shocks. But in Q1 2025, it bounced back with N133.6 billion profit after tax. The big driver? Data.
In 2024, MTN’s data revenue hit N1.59 trillion, up 49% from the previous year. It made up 47% of total revenue. The trend continued in Q1 2025. Data income was N528.98 billion, now 50% of total revenue.
Subscriber numbers tell the story:
47.7 million active data users, up 7%
Data traffic rose 42.9%
Average usage hit 11.2GB per user, up 33.6%
In Q4, usage climbed to 13.2GB per user.
MTN says growth came from better network quality, 4G rollout, and pricing changes. The company is also rolling out early 5G in select zones. This improves speed and boosts revenue per megabyte.
Margins are rising too. Data is cheaper to scale than voice. Once the network is built, more traffic means more profit.
If this pace holds, MTN may earn over N2 trillion from data in 2025. With EBITDA margins in the mid-40% range, it could post N900 billion–N1 trillion in operating profit. That’s up from N769.7 billion in 2024.
If currency stays stable and costs remain steady, MTN could end 2025 with N400 billion net profit. That would erase last year’s loss and put it back on track for dividends—possibly by 2026.
Its EPS now stands at N5.96, with a P/E ratio of 53.56x. The stock closed at N319.20 on June 5, up 59.6% year-to-date.
MTN still faces risks: currency swings, capex, and infrastructure costs. But the worst may be over. Data is pulling it out of the red.
Airtel Africa: Quiet Strength Beneath the Surface
Airtel Nigeria’s numbers look weak at first glance. Revenue fell 30% to $1.045 billion in FY 2025. Data income dropped 26% to $483 million. But the naira’s collapse skews the picture.
In constant currency, revenue actually grew 36%. Data rose 45%. Airtel says this was driven by more smartphones, 4G expansion, and stronger networks.
Data now makes up 44% of Airtel Nigeria’s income, close to MTN’s share.
1.7 million new users joined, taking the total to 29.1 million
Average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to $1.9
Airtel Africa turned a $328 million profit in FY 2025, up from a $89 million loss the year before. Data played a key role.
If ARPU rises slightly to $2 by year-end, Airtel Nigeria could make over $550 million from data alone. Data could soon make up 60–70% of its operating profit.
That gives Airtel room to keep paying dividends—even if other revenue slows. It has already declared a $0.04 final dividend for FY 2025.
Airtel’s share price stood at N2,372.50 on June 5, up 10% this year, with a P/E of 26x.
The New Data Economy
For both telcos, data is the future. Voice is in decline. Margins are rising. Investor confidence is back.
The key metrics to watch: ARPU, User growth and Operating margins.
These will show whether Nigeria’s top telcos can turn their data surge into lasting returns.
